Mathematical modeling and optimal control of the dynamics of terrorist ideologies

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Résumé

We describe the dynamics of the spread of terrorist ideologies within a population, described as an epidemic. The equations of the model are obtained using a contact process, which gives us first-order autonomous non-linear differential equations. Next, the stability of the equilibrium point is established using the basic reproduction number technique; numerical simulations allow us to verify the mathematical results. Finally, optimal control analysis highlights the importance of synergy of action (numbers, equipment, strategy, and training) within the defense and security forces and the importance of patriotism in a nation. In addition, ongoing awareness-raising campaigns are helping to speed up the eradication process.

Mots-clés

Terrorism, modeling, basic reproduction number, optimal control.