Quantifying the impact of time-delayed reporting and supportive care in measles outbreak: A simulation approach for Texas, USA

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Résumé

This study examines how time delays in vaccination response, case reporting, and access to supportive care influence measles transmission during the recent outbreak in Texas, USA. We develop a delay-based compartmental model that captures both biological and operational features of measles control and calibrate it using Texas reported Measles incidence data from January 20 to May 27, 2025. Analytical and numerical results show that delays in reporting and intervention can substantially weaken outbreak control, allowing transmission to persist even in highly vaccinated populations. In contrast, timely case detection, improved vaccination uptake, and access to supportive care significantly reduce transmission and can drive the effective reproduction number below unity. These findings highlight the critical role of minimizing reporting and healthcare delays alongside sustained immunization efforts to prevent measles resurgence and support elimination goals in Texas and similar settings.

Mots-clés

Measles, Time delay, Supportive care, Sensitivity analysis, Numerical simulations