Effect of inclusive growth on terrorism in Sub-Saharan Africa

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Résumé

The objective of this study is to analyse the effect of inclusive growth on terrorism using a sample of 33 Sub-Saharan African countries over the period 1996–2020.
To this end, we construct a unified measure of inclusive growth based on the employment rate and the degree of income equality, a transformation of income
inequality. Data on the employment rate and income inequality are drawn from the International Labour Organization database and the Standardized World Income
Inequality Database, respectively. Terrorism data are obtained from the Global Terrorism Database. Empirical evidence is established using standard negative
binomial regressions and zero-inflated negative binomial regressions, in which inclusive growth and its components are treated alternately as exogenous and
endogenous. The results from the exogenous models show that inclusive growth and the employment rate have negative effects on the measures of terrorism. These
models do not reveal any statistically significant relationship between the degree of income equality and the measures of terrorism. The results from the endogenous
models indicate that inclusive growth, the employment rate, and the degree of income equality have negative effects on the measures of terrorism. These findings
suggest that policymakers should promote inclusive growth to combat terrorism effectively. To this end, they may focus on promoting stable employment or reducing
income inequalities among citizens.

Mots-clés

Inclusive growth, Terrorism, Negative binomial regression, Zero-inflated negative binomial regression, Sub-Saharan Africa