La modélisation de la croissance urbaine de Dédougou à l’horizon 2037 et 2050

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Résumé

In Burkina Faso, while urban sprawl is strong in metropolitan cities such as Ouagadougou and Bobo-Dioulasso, medium-sized towns such as Dédougou have stood out in recent years for their excessive spatial expansion and continuing population growth. The urban area has grown from 558 ha in 1992 to 2889 ha in 2022, with the development of informal settlements covering 72% of the urban area. This fast and uncontrolled urbanisation is affecting suburban agricultural land and vegetation. The aim of this study is to analyse the spatio-temporal dynamics of the city of Dédougou and the prospects for its future development. The methodology is based on the analysis of multi-date images in order to determine changes in land occupation/use over the last 30 years (1992-2022). SpaCelle was used to model land-use units over a 15-year and a 28-year period according to the socio-economic scenario with catastrophic trends and a scenario of good urban planning. This research highlighted that the area of savannah will be reduced by 30% in favour of fields, while the agroforestry park will give up 28% of its area to housing. 584.20 ha of fields will be urbanised. The results also show a spread of housing and fields over 53% and 32% of the urban area respectively in a catastrophic situation, while the optimistic scenario presents the image of a city where 54% of the urban area will be occupied by natural and agricultural areas.

Mots-clés

urban dynamics, spatial modelling, SpaCelle, Dédougou, Burkina Faso