Performance Study and Implementation of Accurate Solar PV Power Prediction Methods for the Nagréongo Power Plant in Burkina Faso

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Résumé

This study aimed to implement an effective power prediction method to support the optimal management of the 30 MW Nagréongo solar photovoltaic (PV) plant in Burkina
Faso. Initially, the performance of the PV plant was assessed by an external consultant based on data recorded in 2023 and 2024, revealing efficiency with a performance ratio (PR) of 73.73% in 2023, which improved to 77.43% in 2024. To forecast the plant’s power output, several deep learning models—namely LSTM, a GRU, LSTM-GRU, and an RNN—were
applied using historical power data recorded at five-minute intervals during the 2024 periods of January–February; March–April; and July–August. All the deep learning models
achieved accurate short-term forecasting for the 30 MW Nagréongo PV plant, with the seasonal performance shaped by the Sahelian weather regimes. The GRU performed best
during the dry season (nRMSE ≈ 4%) and LSTM excelled in the hot months (nRMSE ≈ 2%), while the hybrid LSTM-GRU model proved most robust under rainy-season variability.
Overall, the forecasting errors remained within 2–5% of plant capacity, demonstrating the suitability of these architectures for grid integration and operational planning in Sahel PV systems.

Mots-clés

solar photovoltaic (PV); power forecasting; deep learning; Nagréongo plant